EB-2 NIW approval data, FY2022–FY2026
Data verification is in progress. This page will be updated before publication.
In FY2022, USCIS approved about 96% of the EB-2 National Interest Waiver petitions it decided. In FY2025, about 55%.
Source: USCIS, “Form I-140 by Fiscal Year, Quarter and Case Status” — the National Interest Waiver (NIW) row, which is NIW-specific rather than EB-2 in aggregate. Each row names the workbook it came from, and every figure on this page was recomputed from that workbook’s own approval and denial counts on 2026-10-12. These are nationwide historical adjudication shares across all petitioners. They are not a prediction, probability or estimate for any individual petition, and they are not the firm’s results — the firm does not publish an approval rate.
EB-2 NIW approval share of decided cases — FY2022, FY2025 and FY2026 Q1–Q3 (USCIS primary source)
The numbers
| Period | Receipts | Approved | Denied | Approval share of decisions | USCIS source file |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2022 | 21,973 | 10,316 | 468 | 95.7% | I140_FY22_Q4_RADP.csv |
| FY2025 Q4 | 13,983 | 2,968 | 5,356 | 35.7% | i140_fy2025_q4_v1.xlsx |
| FY2025 | 66,276 | 19,532 | 15,863 | 55.2% | i140_fy2025_q4_v1.xlsx |
| FY2026 Q1 | 13,884 | 2,365 | 3,200 | 42.5% | i140_fy2026_q3_v1.xlsx |
| FY2026 Q2 | 12,648 | 3,038 | 3,282 | 48.1% | i140_fy2026_q3_v1.xlsx |
| FY2026 Q3 | 13,831 | 3,835 | 3,103 | 55.3% | i140_fy2026_q3_v1.xlsx |
FY2025 Q4 alone: 35.7%. FY2026 Q1: 42.5%; Q2: 48.1%.
What "approval share" means
Approvals ÷ (approvals + denials) in the period. It is not "the chance that a filed petition will be approved":
- pending cases and open requests for evidence are excluded;
- decisions in a quarter mostly reflect petitions filed earlier.
What the data does not tell you
- Your odds. The data is not broken out by occupation or field. There is no public USCIS approval rate for software engineers.
- Attorney-filed vs. self-filed outcomes, or results of refiled or appealed cases.
- Why rates changed. Plausible contributors include the tripling of filings (about 22,000 in FY2022 to about 66,000 in FY2025), more templated petitions, and the January 2025 policy update. That is an inference, not a USCIS finding.
Policy context
- January 15, 2025 (USCIS Policy Manual update):
- the EB-2 threshold must be shown first;
- the area of exceptional ability must relate directly to the endeavor;
- business plans need independent support;
- letters should be specific and first-hand.
- Effective August 5, 2026: officers again have discretion to deny without first issuing a request for evidence or a notice of intent to deny.
How to use this number
- Treat it as a base rate, not your probability.
- Build the first filing as if there will be no second chance to add evidence.
- Get an honest read on national importance (the first part of the test) before paying for letters.
Sources and update log
- USCIS data hub: uscis.gov — Immigration and citizenship data (Form I-140 by fiscal year, quarter and case status).
- Compilations consistent with each other:
- Locke Immigration
- Manifest Law
- Greenberg Traurig Inside Business Immigration (June 11, 2026)
- Status: Data verification is in progress. This page will be updated before publication.
Gabriel Guillen-Gonzalez is an active licensee of the State Bar of California, licensed to practice law in California.
No numerical score. No approval prediction. No guarantee. USCIS decides every petition on its own record.